Friday, March 22, 2013

Setups for last week of March

The stock markets are at a critical level here, and its hard to call it either way with the Cyprus news upcoming over the weekend & early next week, but here's some observations and possible setups. I'm not posting too many currency setups below at the moment, because they are going to be very news driven for the next couple of days.

NQ is approaching a critical level, note how its behaved when it hit the level marked, so short when it gets there (unless it gaps above on Cyprus good news?), and if it breaks through and holds that area as support, look for longs with a stop below that level.

ZB spent all week between the key 142 '16 and 143 '24 level, with a few offshoots to the upside, but shorts from the 143 '24 level were highly successful for me all week. This week, if we do breakdown in equities, then we clearly will break above in ZB and will need to look at the 144 '08 and 144 '24 levels, for potential reversals, etc.

Crude oil is another one which I am keeping my eye on. Wild fluctuations today but Crude oil closed strongly today and is looking like it wants to target the 94.4 level first. If it breaks down below the 93.50 level, its a short trade, else we buy dips with 93.50ish as a stop.

With Sugar, 18.50 is the battle ground now, above it, we test 19 and above, below it, we are looking at 18ish. But there's no seasonal rally due here. A bottom in sugar seasonally occurs around June, so until then, stand aside or sell rallies. 

RB however, is indeed due for a nice seasonal rally into May. I posted a breakdown chart on this earlier, and that has played out pretty well, now I guess its bottom picking time? 

Coffee is rallying at the moment, but the seasonal rally is not yet here, infact if you look at the seasonal chart here, you will see that the rally is due early April, and the current bounce is infact a sell. I will be using the levels below to look for sells.

Cotton is coming into support here, and should be a nice buy for a move back up to the 90 level which would then be a fade, note the seasonals for this. I would ideally like to buy a test and hold of 86 level.

One addition to the setups, is Natural Gas. No chart here, but seasonals show its ready for a big decline,  and ADX(7) on daily also near 70. I might short it on Sunday.


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