Thursday, March 28, 2013

Luck is when preparation meets opportunity

I prepared. Last night, I spent a lot of time prepping all the charts for this morning's grain report. However, thats all I did. I watched as all support levels were crushed. It probably happened way too fast for me to react. I should've used sell stops to enter those trades, and this is one lesson I will carry with me into the next such report.  Look at this mess.

As for the Crude oil post,  I shorted like I planned, but a little higher and covered for a small but decent gain. Crude oil has a negative ADX divergence on the daily, but the upside momentum is still strong. RSI(2) on Crude is like 99? If magically we do get up near 97.9 level, I'll be shorting it for a move down to the 92.25 area where it has some support now.

Natural gas looks interesting here. A break of this 4.01-4.02 level convincingly and we can look to sell rallies?

As for ES, now that we're above the 1560 resistance, whats next? I'm thinking we're about to challenge the all time highs in SPX this coming week. As for Monday's trading - seasonality wise, first trading day of April - $YM_F up 15 of last 18. So seasonality is favoring the upside, and I'm inclined to agree with this, and will buy dips with a stop below 1550. 

Coffee looks very interesting here, seasonality also favors the long side. I'll be planning to get long on a break of this 138 level.

6B looks like a decent short if it continues its upside move and gets to the 1.52 resistance level again. I'll take this trade only if ADX is near 60.

With the 30 year bond, its a pretty simple trade at the moment. Sell moves to 144 '20 - '28 with a stop a few ticks above. Support comes in at the 143 '30, 143 '24 and 143 '14 levels where I'd look for long side trades with tight stops.

Here's a stock I'm considering buying. Facebook! It appears to be at support, so lets see if it holds up. 

I'll post more research if I come across any over the weekend. 

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